Friday, January 9, 2009

At the Halfway Point, 14-1. Does it mean anything?

I love every single Gopher basketball player.  I love Tubby Smith and his staff.  I love Gopher basketball.  I want the Gophers to win every game.  I want a Gopher Big Ten title.  I want a Gopher National Championship.  However based on what I have seen this season thus far, the Gophers' 14-1 record doesn't prove anything about our team besides that we have beaten teams that we should beat.

Now be honest with yourself.  11 of the Gophers' 14 wins have been at the Barn, 1 at a neutral site, and 2 on the road.  Think of the teams we have defeated this year: Concordia St. Paul (7-7; Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference), Bowling Green (7-6; MAC Conference), Georgia State (4-11; CAA Conference), Colorado State (5-10; Mountain West Conference), Eastern Washington (8-7; Big Sky Conference), North Dakota State (8-5; Summit League), Virginia (7-5; ACC), Cornell (9-6; Ivy League), South Dakota State (7-10; Summit League), Louisville (10-3; Big East), Southeastern Louisiana (6-7; Southland Conference), High Point (5-9; Big South Conference), Ohio State (10-3; Big Ten), Iowa (11-5; Big Ten).  How many of those teams would you label as a "good team"?  At most two: Louisville and arguably Ohio State.

After the Gophers' next four games we will know how good our team actually is.  The Gophers host a good Penn State team on Sunday, then travel to Madison to play the Badgers, who are always tough to beat at the Kohl Center.  Then a potential trap game, on the road (where the Gophers have not played well this year; a one point win at Colorado State, and an ugly win by three at Iowa) at Northwestern.  Although the Wildcats are at the bottom of the Big Ten they took Penn State to the wire on the road and lost to Michigan State by fewer points then the Gophers did.  Northwestern also is #45 in the RPI and #15 strength of schedule.  Then the Gophers welcome Purdue to the Barn which certainly will be a tough game, especially if the Boilermakers have a healthy Robbie Hummel.  Now being recognized in the AP and ESPN/USA Today Coaches Polls is nice for some national attention, but besides that it doesn't mean much at all.  Playing a weak schedule for the first half of the season, racking up wins, and receiving national attention doesn't mean a darn thing.  Disagree?  See: Gopher Football 2008.  The Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) Rankings are compiled by individuals who make a living off rankings and odds.  For the moment, the LVSC Rankings don't have the Gophers as a top 30 team in the country, for good reason too.  We haven't played enough "good teams" or road games to determine if we are a top 30 team.  My pick is Michigan State to win the Big Ten this year but behind the Spartans the Big Ten is wide open.  The Gophers could realistically finish anywhere from second to sixth in the conference.  With our lack of games against "good teams" and ugly road play at this moment it's difficult to predict where the Gophers will finish in the Big Ten.  If I had to make a prediction, the Gophers will finish fourth in the Big Ten.  Prove me wrong boys, win the Big Ten.

2 comments:

  1. The Penn St. game will show a lot. They are a team that is on about the same level as OSU. The Gophers need to handle teams contending for spots 2 through 6 at home if they want to finish in the top three in the big ten.

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  2. You guys are awful. Seriously.

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